4 Reasons Why EV Technology will Succeed and Weather the Storm in 2020

The Model Y rolled into the new year with momentum and just like any product in 2020, it was disrupted by Covid-19.

We’re close to the midpoint of 2020 and it’s been a troubling, trying and a dystopian year with Covid-19, social strife and uncertain economic futures throughout the world. For the EV and cleantech community, 2020 was to be "the year when EV technology broke" through to mainstream consumers due to so many new electric models from automakers.

As 2020 approached, automotive analysts knew the EV model parade wasn't coming in the first half of the year. However, in April, many wondered if electric car sales would collapse due to the economic implications of Covid-19 in 2020.

However, there are reasons for optimism in 2020 and beyond.

First and foremost, automakers are “pot” committed — to use a poker term — to their electrification strategies. Other reasons are the overall demand for the sporty Tesla Model Y and its quality issues, and the 2020 Renault Zoe. The Volkswagen ID.3 is also being delivered to European customers in September 2020, after some software development issues earlier this year — Apple CarPlay integration challenges.

Reason 1 - The 3rd Era of Volkswagen

Volkswagen is calling its electric car technology the third era of VW, with the Beetle and the Golf filling those shoes before in previous decades. There is a lot of excitement for VW’s ID.3, a compact EV model, and deliveries are coming in September for Europe. The compact car is a big seller in Europe and the all-electric, updated Renault Zoe is selling in 2020 in France due its solid handling, updated interior features and longer battery range.

However, VW is known for its legacy Golf model in the segment and this is why many EV advocates are hopeful for a solid launch and good reviews. If the EV model meets sales VW's sales goals in the long term—think Golf and 20 million sales over its lifetime—then the company should be poised for a successful launch of its crossover SUV in the U.S. in 2022 and, more importantly, have capital to keep investing in this strategy. See a video review of the VW ID.3 below. 

The company has over 30,000 reservations for the 1st Edition, ID.3, but the order books recently opened in June for Germany and next month for the U.K.

Reason 1A - Integrated EV Products from Automakers

Houston, we have a problem and it's dealerships trying to sell electric cars with their limited knowledge of the technology. That’s why it’s encouraging to see automakers reach downstream to dealerships and add adjacent products, like a home charger, to the over EV sell. VW just announced that in conjunction with the ID.3 launch it’s offering the Level 2 ID. Charger. According to VW, The ID. Charger is available in 3 different configurations starting at €399, which is the equivalent of $450 USD. All options have a power output of up to 11 kW, but they offer different connected features, see below:

Peter Diekmann, Key Account Manager at the Volkswagen subsidiary Elli which is responsible for the ID Charger, commented, “In the past, buying a wallbox was often a tiresome and long-winded exercise for customers. We want to change that and are offering a single-source solution for the ID. Charger – from purchase and installation through to commissioning.”

Again, this is Europe. On a hopeful note, we’re seeing increased emphasis on partnerships with automakers and dealerships when it comes to EVs, but more needs to be done for major increases in EV sales.

Reason 2 | Stimulus Programs from Covid-19 and European Regulation

We’re staying in Germany for #2, as the country announced new and expanded EV incentives due to Covid-19 in June. The Germany stimulus program will be offering a €9,000 rebate (new & older incentives combined) for electric cars starting under €40,000, along with a push for more charging stations at petrol locations.

Besides incentives, government regulation in Europe requires automakers to meet the CO2 95 g/km standard for passenger cars and light vehicles in 2020, a serious challenge.  So there’s no looking back for automakers as they try to meet these European standards.

The ID.4, also known as the Crozz concept, will be sold in the U.S., Europe and China.

Auto companies are forming alliances to get close to these standards, but the focus is on reducing emissions with new approaches such as lightweighting, plug-in electric hybrids and all electric vehicles. Ford and VW finalized an alliance to build vans, pickups and electric vehicles using its VW’s Modular Electric Drive Matrix platform (MEB) and Ford’s technology fulfillment in June 2020. Automakers are moving forward and capital is abundant in 2020, so don’t expect the EV development to go anywhere.

Plus, many U.S. states and cities and European cities have moved to phase-out fossil fuel vehicles and institute Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) bans in the last four years to help set roadmaps and expectations for automakers. These may change with new governors and political parties, but automakers are moving forward in finding profits from EV car and battery production at great speed. Chevy is predicting EV profits by 2021, while Tesla already hit quarterly profits in 2020.

Reason 3 - EV Charging Infrastructure Has Momentum

For better or worse, every three out of four electric cars sold in 2019 were Tesla vehicles, and the company has Superchargers throughout North America, Europe and Asia. The company owns its charging stations, while automakers have relied on shaky, 3rd party buildout of charging stations over the last 8 years.

The 3rd party charging infrastructure is also available to Tesla via adapters, so the company has charging coverage throughout the world.

Congratulations to @ElectrifyAm on this accomplishment! 👏🏽🥂👍🏾🔌⚡🔋🚗 @SethACutler https://t.co/m3Excm66Cw

— Dennis Pascual (@dennis_p) June 25, 2020

However, VW’s emission scandal created the Electrify America and Canada charging networks, and this new company with funds from VW is at the beginning of a large buildout of mainly DC fast charging stations across North America. Plus, ChargePoint, EVgo and other charging networks are ramping up DC fast charging stations, along with Level 2 stations that provide anywhere from 20 to 30 miles of charge in an hour. DC charging stations provide up to approximately 100 miles in 30 minutes, depending on your state of charge, and are now being seen in key Walmart supercenters and strategic highway locations. 

In June 2020, there are portions of the U.S. that don’t have any non-Tesla DC fast charging stations, but charging networks are identifying where automakers are selling EVs and building out from there. For example, below is an image of non-Tesla fast charging from Indianapolis to St. Louis. The charging infrastructure, via Plugshare, shows how a Kia Niro with a 240+ mile battery pack wouldn't have an issue traveling to St. Louis from Indianapolis with two Electrify America DC fast charging stations located in Terre Haute, IN. and Effingham, IL. 

DC fast charging isn't everywhere, but the Kia Niro and Chevy Bolt are finding long-distance solutions like this one from Indianapolis to St. Louis.

Some Electrify America DC fast charging stations had connection issues in 2019 due to cabling issues, but like most of the EV industry, supplier quality is getting better and reviews on PlugShare show increased satisfaction with most charging stations.

The takeaway? Non-Tesla models are finding more DC fast charging across North America and the world. 

EV Charging Fact | The number of publicly accessible charging points for electric vehicles (EV) jumped 60% in 2019, the biggest increase in three years and outpacing sales of battery-powered cars, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Reason 4 - Impactful EV Models Coming in the Next 9 months

For the last ten years, only one automaker has been creating attractive relevant EV models that aren't compliance electric cars. Tesla. The company has produced a Roadster, Model S sedan, Model X SUV, a small Model 3 sedan and, now in 2020, it’s the Model Y, crossover SUV.

Sales winner for 2020 in the PHEV category? The Toyota RAV 4 Prime has great style and it's being sold in the U.S. this Fall, according to Toyota. The overall trend for 2020 is non-Tesla automakers are creating models that are not compact or sub-compact EVs. For 2020, Toyota is delivering the rugged, RAV4-Prime plug-in hybrid electric truck (PHEV) with approximately 43 miles of charge from its battery pack and then switches to gas as the power source (NOTE - Toyota has changed that launch due to lack of battery supply). The PHEV category is often overlooked but gives so much freedom to car owners and, 80% of the time, car owners drive less than 40 miles a day. The now-retired Chevy Volt PHEV had a tremendous following with its 40-mile (1st gen.) and 60+ mile (2nd gen) models. The only problem with the Chevy Volt was the utter lack of enthusiasm by the Chevy ecosystem to sell Motor Trend’s Car of the Year from 2012.

The Ford Mach-E is coming soon and recent reports had Ford asking customers for confirmations on their reservations. Other new models hurtling down the EV avenue is Rivian’s R1S SUV, debuting in “early” 2021 and the Ford Mustang Mach-E, a crossover SUV. The Mach-E has earned favorable reviews and is completely sold out for the first run of EVs coming towards the end of 2020.

VW recently made news too with the next electric model on the ID platform, called the ID.4. According to the Verge, “the ID.4 will be the first electric vehicle sold in the U.S and in China and Europe too. The German automaker is said to be planning a full reveal of the ID 4 sometime later this summer.”

So the electric car industry has solid industry trends working in its favor and new incentives in place that weren't there before 2020. There's a lot of uncertainity still to go in 2002, but hopefull EV sales can be the story of the year.